Issue 13: Do Falling Birth Rates Pose a Threat to Health Welfare?

Issue 13

Do Falling Birth Rates Pose a Threat to Health Welfare?

Authors: Michael Meyer and David Nicholson-Lord

1. (2pts) Definitions. List the important new terms and concepts used by the author. Define terms with which you were not familiar. Circle those that you think need clarification and discussion. Minimum 4.

a. carrying capacity – considering the available space, food, and other resources in a habitat, this refers to the ability of the habitat to sustain a certain number of individuals within a population.

b. birth dearth – a newer word that refers to a falling fertility rate.

c. depopulation – removing or reducing the overall population.

d. population age – the average age of a population.

e. portend – somewhat like giving an omen or sign.

2. (4pts) Summary. In your own words, summarize the themes and key points developed in this chapter, article, or section of an assigned book. Write as if you were the author telling another educated person what you were trying to say in the assigned piece. In this section, do not give your opinion. Present the arguments and themes of the assigned author.

Michael Myer, of Newsweek, states that the world population will decline in 2050 and economic growth with stagnate. Young people will have to bear the burden of supporting more elderly and quality of life will suffer.

Overpopulation has led to environmental degradation, famine, poverty, war, diseases, and scarce energy resources. The world’s population is increasing, but it is projected to decline after 2050.

Developed nations have declining birth rates, not even enough to sustain the current population. However, developing nations are set to triple in size by 2050. The decline in developed countries is occurring regardless of whether or not that country is utilizing birth control programs or birth incentive programs.

Exceptions to this declining tread among developed nations are found in the Middle East, which is expected to double in the next 20 years. However, this is considered to be found decrease in infant mortality and the increase is expected to cease after the 20 years and the population will then age more rapidly than other parts of the globe.

Despite the AIDS epidemic in Africa, the population there is expected to grow; along with that, so is the United States population. Women’s rights and education has a huge effect on the decrease of fertility rates.

After 2015, the labor pool of China will begin to dry up because of their one child policy, Chinese economist Hu Angang says.

Demographic change, result in a magnification of societal and economical problems. For example, welfare will be increasingly taxed by an aging population. Tensions may rise – is immigration to declining population developed nations from developing nations increase, the desire to preserve culture and national unity will increase.

In the next 45 years, the United States alone stands to gain 100 million people from a combination of stable population growth and relatively free immigration laws. However, environmental factors will benefit from a decreasing human population.

David Nicholson-Lord, from New Statesman, refutes this belief and states that the population decline will result in less overcrowding, less violence, a less materialistically based world that is environmentally better off than we are now. With less people in the world, there would be less pollution produced, a decreased need for energy supply and fossil fuel usage, more land available per person, and to the environment.

There would be reduced competitiveness in jobs, crowds, educational placements, and social niches. There would also be less crime with an aging population. Younger people are more likely to commit crimes, so without as many, crime would therefore decrease.

He believes that by just being realistic in policies and behaviors, population decline does not have to entail doom. Some of the policy changes are: commit more to savings, consume less, investments in preventative health measures, a more productive labor force, and increase in retirement age, bring retired persons back into the workforce, penalties for ageism, and making jobs more attractive with added incentives to work.

3. (3pts) Creative Reaction and Integration. Record some of your own ideas that came to you as you were reading and thinking about the issue or issues the author is discussing. Formulate these in well-written sentences, develop them as best you can, and relate them to the author’s discussion and possibly to other readings and course themes.

The growth of the human population is not good because we’re overpopulating the earth and causing too many environmental stains on our planet. But yet, a decline in human population also spells doom! Without the huge working force, the economy will decline, standards of living will decrease, and government programs will also have to cease. It seems that there are too many Malthus’s in the world today. Hasn’t anyone learned from him that you cannot predict too much about the population impacts in the future because you aren’t aware of the possibly technologies that population will benefit from?

Couldn’t it be because we cannot afford six children in today’s economy? Both parents to afford many children and we might not have the time available for such parenting.

They say that with less people in the world, there wouldn’t be as much competition in jobs. Yet, with fewer consumers, wouldn’t there be less need for as many employees? Wouldn’t the business world’s requirement for workers reflect the requirements placed upon them by demand for service or products? It seems counterintuitive that these would not correlate.

4. (2pts) Opinion – Not graded, 2 points awarded if completed.

Perhaps I’m looking too much on the environmental side of this situation, but I believe population decline to be a beneficial thing. We have strained our world so much, the climate is now changing. I do not think this is a bad thing, then, that less people, less consumption, and less need is demanded of our world. Also, the decrease in violence seems an added bonus.